Iowa Predictions

I spend much of my time each day read­ing news­pa­pers and talk­ing to friends about pol­i­tics, but rarely do I post on the sub­ject. There are some excel­lent sources that focus on pol­i­tics and the race for the White house. So, the last thing this coun­try needs is anoth­er blog­ger for Dean.

How­ev­er, today is the Iowa cau­cus —a bizarre exer­cise that makes the Elec­toral Col­lege look down­right democratic—so I thought I’d take a few min­utes to give my take.

First, the head­lines seem to point to Dean drop­ping off dra­mat­i­cal­ly in the past weeks. I can’t deny this, by the Zog­by polls are always a bit dubi­ous. I think Dean will pre­vail.

So, here’s my predictions:

  1. Dean – Strong orga­ni­za­tion will dri­ve turnout, but will beat Gep by only a few points. He will break 30%.
  2. Gephardt – A dis­ap­point­ing sec­ond, will mark the begin­ning of the end of his cam­paign. He should get close to 30% if the unions are out in force.
  3. Ker­ry – Looks good in lat­est polls, but doesn’t have the ground oper­a­tion of the first two. I think he’ll beat Edwards because he’s spent the most time in Iowa, but cold weath­er could keep his senior base from com­ing out. Ker­ry will break 20%.
  4. Edwards – This guy is the real “anti-Dean”, and I think his pos­i­tive mes­sage and south­ern drawl can help him con­tin­ue on after New Hamp­shire. Though he’ll fin­ish 4th, I think he’s posi­tioned bet­ter than Ker­ry mov­ing forward.

Is Gen­er­al Clark the wild card? He doesn’t fig­ure in Iowa, but he’s work­ing all alone in New Hapshire…

1 Response to “Iowa Predictions”

  • I pre­dict that John Ashcroft will rule the cau­cus a vio­la­tion of the DMCA and then rule that Dean is a terrorist.

    Bush will then replace the Demo­c­ra­t­ic par­ty with fig­ure­heads from Haliburton.

    You know I’m right.

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