Iowa Predictions

I spend much of my time each day reading newspapers and talking to friends about politics, but rarely do I post on the subject. There are some excellent sources that focus on politics and the race for the White house. So, the last thing this country needs is another blogger for Dean.

However, today is the Iowa caucus —a bizarre exercise that makes the Electoral College look downright democratic—so I thought I’d take a few minutes to give my take.

First, the headlines seem to point to Dean dropping off dramatically in the past weeks. I can’t deny this, by the Zogby polls are always a bit dubious. I think Dean will prevail.

So, here’s my predictions:

  1. Dean – Strong organization will drive turnout, but will beat Gep by only a few points. He will break 30%.
  2. Gephardt – A disappointing second, will mark the beginning of the end of his campaign. He should get close to 30% if the unions are out in force.
  3. Kerry – Looks good in latest polls, but doesn’t have the ground operation of the first two. I think he’ll beat Edwards because he’s spent the most time in Iowa, but cold weather could keep his senior base from coming out. Kerry will break 20%.
  4. Edwards – This guy is the real “anti-Dean”, and I think his positive message and southern drawl can help him continue on after New Hampshire. Though he’ll finish 4th, I think he’s positioned better than Kerry moving forward.

Is General Clark the wild card? He doesn’t figure in Iowa, but he’s working all alone in New Hapshire…

1 Response to “Iowa Predictions”

  • I predict that John Ashcroft will rule the caucus a violation of the DMCA and then rule that Dean is a terrorist.

    Bush will then replace the Democratic party with figureheads from Haliburton.

    You know I’m right.

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