Iowa Predictions

I spend much of my time each day read­ing news­pa­pers and talk­ing to friends about pol­i­tics, but rarely do I post on the sub­ject. There are some excel­lent sources that focus on pol­i­tics and the race for the White house. So, the last thing this coun­try needs is another blog­ger for Dean.

How­ever, today is the Iowa caucus  — a bizarre exer­cise that makes the Elec­toral Col­lege look down­right demo­c­ra­tic — so I thought I’d take a few min­utes to give my take.

First, the head­lines seem to point to Dean drop­ping off dra­mat­i­cally in the past weeks. I can’t deny this, by the Zogby polls are always a bit dubi­ous. I think Dean will prevail.

So, here’s my predictions:

1. Dean – Strong orga­ni­za­tion will drive turnout, but will beat Gep by only a few points. He will break 30%.
2. Gephardt – A dis­ap­point­ing second, will mark the begin­ning of the end of his cam­paign. He should get close to 30% if the unions are out in force.
3. Kerry – Looks good in latest polls, but doesn’t have the ground oper­a­tion of the first two. I think he’ll beat Edwards because he’s spent the most time in Iowa, but cold weather could keep his senior base from coming out. Kerry will break 20%.
4. Edwards – This guy is the real “anti-Dean”, and I think his pos­i­tive mes­sage and south­ern drawl can help him con­tinue on after New Hamp­shire. Though he’ll finish 4th, I think he’s posi­tioned better than Kerry moving forward.

Is Gen­eral Clark the wild card? He doesn’t figure in Iowa, but he’s work­ing all alone in New Hapshire…